Scenario planning
 Scenario planning is not about predicting the future. It is about exploring
the future. If you are aware of what could happen, you are
better able to prepare for what will happen.
Scenario planning exercises involve identifying trends and exploring the implications of projecting them forward – probably as high, medium and low forecasts. These can include political, economic, social and technological. As different trends are chosen and different combinations of forecast levels are combined, a whole spectrum of possibilities can be identified.
Well known examples include the end of the Berlin Wall, OPEC oil price rises, bombs and terrorist attacks. Asking the great “What if?” Identifying risk.
Carrying out regular exercises does not necessarily mean that you will be prepared for an eventuality, but it does mean that you are more likely to be aware of the possibility and, thus, able to act very rapidly if a situation develops.
It is human nature to resist change. The human mind does not easily recognise information it does not understand, or expect. Information is filtered before it is processed. So, in addition to encouraging a pre-run of options, these exercises will also sensitise players to critical information that they might otherwise not have noticed.
What is involved?
An exercise can involve major data collection and analysis, together with sophisticated computer modelling. That's for the professionals.
As a management tool, the exercise involves letting go of preconceived ideas and expectations, being imaginative – group 'dreaming'. Lots of flip charts, sticky notes, marketing information – and an expert facilitator to manage the process!
There are many 'soft' tools, including brain storming, PEST analysis, study of past technological changes, analysis of historical discontinuities and moments of change, systems analysis and searching for the "unintended consequence".
Find out more
We don't know whether you would like us to facilitate an exercise, or whether you would like to know more about facilitation. Whichever it is, you can spend a little time exploring this web site. Look at our selection of books, articles from other web sites, or learn more about the process and methodology of scenario planning.
Or you can contact us now.
Or you can do nothing.
The choice is yours.
Why not contact us now.
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