The perfect firestorm

Category: Editorial

Richard Winfield - editor I watched a television programme recently which simulated a 'Perfect Firestorm' west of Sydney, Australia. Not only is Australia the driest continent but many areas are populated with gum trees that are not only very combustible, but which give off combustible vapours which hover above the trees. It is very susceptible to fires.

The programme demonstrated how a combination of circumstances could create the 'perfect firestorm' which would self perpetuate. The heat would create winds that would fan the flames and which would carry any moisture too high to enable rain to form; and which would also create thunder storms whose lightning strikes would start yet more fires. The prevailing wind from the west would blow sparks and start more fires until eventually they reached and engulfed the outskirts of Sydney. Only when it was very close to the Harbour would the updraft draw in enough moisture to create rain storms and dowse the flames.

The programme was based on scientific research and represented a real - terrifying - possibility.

The interesting thing was that the tactic for fighting fires is to start more fires; smaller, controllable fires that will destroy woodland and starve the flames of fuel when the main fire eventually reaches them. In this case the main fire was too big and too fast for this tactic to work - and a disaster followed.

Fire is a natural part of the life cycle of Australian bush. When I visited an Aboriginal museum in the Grampians we saw the effects of a fire from the past, and the recovery that was already taking place as seeds germinated and roots sprouted. We were told how the Aborigines used to practice regular burning of controllable areas of the bush so that it never grew to a potentially dangerous fire hazard. They understood that you fight fire with fire. But instead of using this as a tactic in emergencies, they used it within a strategy of environmental management.

The situation is similar in the USA, where we are increasingly hearing of major conflagrations covering thousands of acres and threatening rural housing. A hundred years ago there were more, smaller fires, but much less real damage. However, changes in farming practice and a policy of fire prevention mean that these small 'safety valve' fires no longer happen and, as in Australia, the scene is set for disaster.

Questions: what examples can you think of in which a desire for tidiness and avoidance of short term discomfort lead to potential catastrophe? What issues can you think of where a failure to confront them is leading to a major incident? What has to happen so that they can be dealt with before it is too late?

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Richard Winfield is founder of Brefi Group.
He coaches directors and boards in transition:
new and potential directors, effective boards,
mergers and acquisitions, corporate retreats,
change programmes.