Case study - scenario planning
In 2004 Brefi Group was commissioned by the water industry trade association to facilitate an eight month scenario planning exercise for the water industry in Britain.
Initial brainstorming and data collection was carried out at five ?intelligence workshops? attended by specialists nominated from water companies. These covered: -
Political and structural
The water industry operates in a highly regulated environment. This group investigated potential changes at European, national and local levels in terms of such matters as regulation, standards, legal, competition, pricing, ownership, the impact of EU expansion, border controls.
Environmental
The environment is significant in terms of weather, ground and water pollution and regulations.
Economic
This group considered the impact of possible economic trends on the water industry and prepared logical links with parameters from other groups.
Sociological/cultural/demographic
The objective of this group was to investigate consumption patterns. It considered regional distribution as well as national and international pressures, and identified links with political and environmental issues
Technical/distribution/infrastructure
This group considered technical developments that will affect the supply and treatment of water, environmental impact and water consumption by industry and consumer. It was charged with considering supply and distribution of water.
The key variables, ideas and information were collected on many flip charts for later transcription. A small team from the client organisation then worked with the consultant to identify which key variables were unique to a subject area and which cross-related. By reducing the flip charts to clusters of Post-it notes, the following five scenario themes were identified:-
- Population and industry shift
- Social priority for the environment
- Current trend projection
- Pay for service expectation
- Water funding issues
These were presented to a two-day workshop of senior water industry executives for development into full descriptive ten-year scenarios. During this final exercise, one or more shock events were introduced, such as: -
- A collapse in investor confidence
- A shock to customer confidence in the industry
- Significant water resource deficiencies
- An unexpected catastrophe
- A State of Emergency or other destabilising events
Finally, the scenarios were transcribed by a journalist into fictitious press reports (set in year 2014) as a practical discussion document to stimulate consideration by a wider audience.
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